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Industry Group Updates
This month, you will notice that we have
upgraded our industry group database to match the current state of the
Dow Jones Industry Groups. This has increased the number of industry
groups that we analyze with our AI models from 85 to 100. Historically,
Dow Jones has revised their industry groups about once every five years
or so and after they are finished with their changes, we follow their
lead and upgrade our models to match. Here is a brief synopsis of the
changes.
The industry groups that are brand new
are:
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Platinum & Precious Metals
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Business Training & Employment
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Financial Administration
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Industrial Suppliers
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Tires
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Travel & Tourism
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Multiutilities
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Insurance Brokers
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Reinsurance
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Also, some of the old industry groups
were split into two new industries:
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"Diversified Financial" was split into
"Consumer Finance" and "Specialty Finance"
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"Transportation Equipment" was split into
"Commercial Vehicles" and "Transportation Services"
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"Aerospace & Defense" was split into
"Aerospace" and "Defense"
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"Real Estate" was split into "Real Estate
Holding & Development" and "Real Estate Investment Trusts"
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"Distillers & Brewers" was split into
"Distillers & Vintners" and "Brewers"
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"Recreational Products & Services" was
split into "Recreational Products" and "Recreational Services"
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"Securities Brokers" became "Asset
Managers" and "Investment Services"
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Some industry groups had a name change
only:
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"Advanced Medical Devices" became
"Medical Equipment"
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"Pollution Control" became "Waste &
Disposal Services"
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"Wireless Telecomm" became "Mobile
Telecomm"
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"Industrial Services" became "Business
Support Services"
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"Casinos" became "Gambling"
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"Air Freight" became "Delivery Services"
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"Cosmetics" became "Personal Products"
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"Advanced Industrial Equipment" became
"Electronic Equipment"
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"Advertising" became "Media Agencies"
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"Factory Equipment" became "Industrial
Machinery"
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In one case, two old industries were
merged into one new industry:
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"Entertainment" and "Broadcasting" became
"Entertainment and Broadcasting"
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A complete listing of the 100 new
industry groups with cross-referencing to the related Fidelity Select
Mutual Funds is shown on the "Funds / Industry" web page. To go there,
click here.
Stock / Industry Group Updates
As is to be expected with this many
changes to the industry group database, many stocks have been
reclassified to a new industry group. So, if you can't find a stock in
the industry group that it was in last month, go to the "Stock
Forecasts" link at the top of this page and enter the stock symbol to
find out what industry group it has been allocated to.
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Performance Statistics
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Comparative Performance Since
1/10/92 |
Growth of $10,000 |
Total % Return |
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S&P 500 |
$32,275 |
222.8% |
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AI
Fidelity Fund Portfolio |
$82,451 |
724.5% |
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AI
Stock
Portfolio |
$126,458 |
1164.6% |

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Time Frame Comparisons |
1 Month
Total
Return |
1
Year Total Return |
5
Year Total Return |
10
Year Total Return |
|
S&P 500 |
+4.2% |
+13.2% |
+28.1% |
+92.9% |
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AI Fidelity Fund Portfolio |
+2.7% |
+9.2% |
+59.2% |
+269.6% |
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AI Stock Portfolio |
+1.1% |
+7.2% |
+100.9% |
+335.0% |
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If you haven't been keeping an eye
on our AI Performance page,
please take a look at it. We update it
each month with the latest statistics. |
Our Model Portfolios
This month our model portfolios
experienced a much higher rate of turnover than is typical. The AI
Fidelity Fund Portfolio traded 4 of its 10 positions and the AI Stock
Portfolio traded 8 of its 20 positions. At first glance one might think
that this was due to all of the upgrades to the stock industry group
database. However, upon close inspection, it is clear that the cause of
the high turnover rate is the fact that our AI models are making a
massive change in their predictions for inflation over the next year.
Almost all of the industries and stocks that are being sold are in the
energy, basic materials, and precious metals categories.
There appears to be a massive tidal
change occurring in the model's predictions for the next 12 months. It
could be the first indication that the economy will slow dramatically
and head for a recession. We will need to watch this carefully over the
next few months to get a feeling for where the models are going with
this change of trend.
Michael
Henry - editor
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